Mackenzie Kelly Wins & December 2020 Runoff Election Analysis
Let's start with the big news. Mazkenzie Kelly won her district 6 runoff with Jimmy “Big Bully” Flannigan. After months of accusing Mackenzie Kelly of being a racist and bigot, Jimmy Flannigan lost his city council race to Mackenzie Kelly. I guess all that race baiting and identity politics didn’t pay off. Sadly, Alison Alter won her race for the Austin city council in district 10. Everyone already knows about their victories, so I will just go into the voting analysis. We were all skeptical about this race because of the Travis county clerk’s terrible history. The county clerk has 2 criminal investigations ongoing, and she doesn’t pay attention to voting law. On the travis county website, she still has erroneous information on who is eligible to vote by mail. You will see how this might have factored into the district 6 and district 10 races below.
District 6 race
As we said before, Mackenzie Kelly won this race. She won 7,875 to 7,198. You have to combine Travis county election results and Williamson county results to get to this total. KVUE has the results in total but not by category. I had to sum those up myself. She won 52.25% to 47.75%. As you can see this election was won by in person voting against Jimmy in Travis County. This makes sense because that is where Jimmy has done the most damage.
Travis County Results
Travis County District 6 Election Results
Williamson County Results
Williamson County District 6 Election Results Jimmy won the mail in vote in both counties which was a key tactic of Dana "the election stealer." However, there were not enough mail in ballots to pull off the win for poor lil Jimmy. You have to be:
elderly,
sick
or disabled
to get a mail in ballot. I have a hard time believing that elderly people are laid up in a nursing home eager to vote for Jimmy. Support was so strong for Mackenzie Kelly that Dana’s shenanigans didn’t work for Jimmy and he lost. He was on a zoom call with his supporters and had a good feeling that he would win. This was probably based on word from Dana, but the mail in ballots were not enough because Mackenzie crushed him with people voting in person. In Person Voting & Election Day It looks like many more people voted on election day in the runoff than the general election. Mackenzie gained 1k voters in person for election day. I think this shows that people did not trust early voting in Travis county, so they all showed up in person. Jimmy lost huge percentages of voters from the general election. It seems like all the anti-trump sentiment helped him in the general, but he lost all that federal election support in the runoff. It might also be because Jennifer Mushtaler endorsed Mackenzie. This gave the ok to democrats to vote against crazed maniac Flannigan. A key strategy for people to use in the future is to encourage in-person voting on election day. Mail in vote The mail in vote turnout for the runoff was almost the same as it was in the general. This shows how mail in voting is going to run Travis county elections for years to come unless something is done. Jimmy only lost 398 mail in votes in total from the general election while Mackenzie lost 26 mail in votes from the general election. By contrast, Jimmy lost over 7k in-person early voters from the general election, and Mackenzie lost about 5k early voters. Something is definitely up with the mail in voting system. Comparison to past D6 runoff In Jimmy’s first runoff in 2014 that he lost, only 35% of voters that voted in the general election voted in the runoff. This election had a 42% turnout when you compare 15k voters versus 35k that turned out for the general election. That is pretty astonishing. I don’t know what to think about this number. I think it is a combination of two things. 1. People showing up for Mackenzie because they are tired of Jimmy and his insane policies 2. Dana’s insane approach to mail in ballots
District 10 race
Alison Alter won the city of Austin councilmember race for district 10. She won 12,348 to Jennifer Virden’s 11,761. Alter only won by 587 votes. You will see how shady this win was and the tactic used to win it.
alison alter dec 15 win This race is easier to analyze because it does not contain Williamson county. Alter Mailed In The Race This was a close race, and it looks like it was the mail-in vote that sealed it for Alter. As you can see, Jennifer Virden crushed Alter in early voting with 7,133 votes to 5,757 votes. Alison Alter made up a little of this on election day but not much. She only outpaced Virden by 207 votes on election day. However, it looks like Alter destroyed Virden with mail-ins. She received 1,736 more mail in ballots than Virden. You might be saying well that’s how Democrats vote. Maybe they do but not in numbers that huge for a runoff. Let’s look at the general election.
Alison Alter General 2020 Election Alison Alter received 3,982 mail ins in the 2020 general election. She received 3,727 for the December 15, 2020 runoff. That means she only lost 255 votes from the general. Runoffs are supposed to have way lower voter turnout. What this shows is that there is no request for a mail in ballot. Additionally this shows that some of these people are likely getting help filling the ballots out in my opinion. How are the same amount of people so diligent about returning mail in ballots for two council runoff races??? District 10 Irregularities So there are some irregularities in this race. The most notable is the mail in vote. We can further analyze this by the precinct results. The Travis County Clerk provides elections results on a precinct level. Precinct 273 The most egregious result is precinct 273 where Alison Alter won 925 votes to 276 votes. If you drop down into the voter registration data with voting history on the Travis County clerk's office you can analyze how this might have happened. I used the data from the 2020 general election since that is the most recent data. I found multiple addresses in this precinct with huge mail in voter turnouts. Both of them were Westminster nursing homes. There are approximately 266 old folks registered in the largest Westminster nursing home that I found. Of those 266 registered, 218 voted in the general election. That’s 82% turnout. Of those 219 that voted, 185 voted by mail. The data for the runoff is not yet ready, but I'm sure it will be very similar since Alter was not missing many mail-in votes from general election to runoff. There is another location close by that is another Westminster building. There are 120 people registered in this nursing home. 108 of those people voted in the 2020 general election. That’s 89% turnout. Wow. Amazing turnout for these 80 and 90 year olds (many of the folks I researched in these locations were 80 and above). It's important to note that Westminster offers something called dementia and memory care to patients that are cognitively challenged or have dementia. How many individuals with dementia voted??? These are the two largest nursing homes. I’m sure there are more to be found. I found some other large ones with similar turnouts in other districts across the city.
Virden’s big wins
Now let’s take a look at the precincts where Jennifer Virden won big. Precinct 212 One of the precincts that was big for Virden was precinct 212 where Virden won 681 votes to Alter’s 176. YUGGGGGGGGEEEE win. That’s a total of 857 votes in that precinct. Mail in votes were only totaled 180 in that precinct and Virden won the mail in votes. The mail in vote was 21%. By contrast the mail in vote in precinct 273 was 33% of 1,201 votes. Something wrong with this picture? I don’t know. You tell me. Alter wins in precincts with huge nursing home mail in votes. I don’t know many people over 80 that are for super progressive initiatives, do you? Precinct 256 Another big precinct for Virden was precinct 256. Virden won this precinct 648 votes to Alter’s 365. That’s a total of 1,013 votes. There were a total of 205 mail in votes in this precinct which represents 20% of total votes. Alter won the mail in of course. Virden absolutely crushed the in person vote though. As you can see mail-in voting at nursing homes was key to Alison Alter's win. Mail-in voting in general is key to democrats winning in 2020 since Dana "the crook" is just automatically mailing out ballots to people.